The coal transportation volume is uneven, and the Qin line is “not enough”.
Issuing time:2019-11-13 15:01
After the coal price is low, the coal market “both supply and demand is not prosperous”, and its side effects of continued downturn finally extend to railway transportation.
According to the recent report released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in June, the national railway coal shipment volume was 140 million tons, down 12% year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative shipment of coal was 910 million tons, down 11.2%. From January to June, the country's coal output was 1.63 billion tons, down 9.7% year-on-year.
"On the one hand, the state has successively introduced policies and measures to resolve the overcapacity of coal, especially many illegal coal mines have been shut down, directly affecting the production of raw coal; on the other hand, the decline in raw coal production is related to the decline in market demand. In addition, thermal power generation and coking The decline in the consumption of raw coal produced is also the main reason for the decline in coal production in the first half of the year,” said Wang Xingyan, researcher at the Raw Materials Industry Research Institute of Saidi Research Institute.
At the same time of large-scale production decline, coal-producing enterprises pay more attention to logistics costs, and comprehensive logistics costs determine customers' choice of transportation channels. In the second half of last year, after the opening of the quasi-pool line, the coal in Inner Mongolia was launched from the “Jianchi Line-朔黄线-黄骅港” channel, which was 15 yuan lower than the freight rate from the “Daguan Line-Daqin Line-Qinhuangdao Port”. yuan / tonne. Affected by factors such as railway transportation distance and low freight rate, many high-quality coals in the western Inner Mongolia were diverted from the Daqin line to the Yellow Line, resulting in a rapid increase in the volume of the Yellow Line and a significant drop in the volume of the Daqin Line.
"The original Daqin line is overloaded. It should be said that there is still some spare capacity." A staff member of Qinhuangdao Port told the reporter of China Times.
In the market competition, the operation and status of “Jianchi Line-朔黄线-黄骅港” has been significantly improved. The focus of coal transportation has been gradually shifted to “the second coal transportation channel” from the Daqin line of “front coal transportation channel”朔Yellow line. Affected by this, the coal shipments of Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port and Guotou Jingtang Port showed a significant reduction of 55 million tons. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the volume of coal in Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port has increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the volume of coal in Huanghua Port has increased significantly by 28 million.
However, with the arrival of the summer electricity peak, starting from June, the peak of coal consumption will come, the downstream demand will increase, and the enthusiasm of users to pull coal will also increase accordingly, driving the coastal coal transportation to become more and more busy, and the coal shipment volume of the northern port will exceed Half a year.
"In the past two months, the main coal-producing enterprises are also bound to increase the number of sales and shipments. Railway and port transportation will be significantly improved. The coastal coal market will have long-lost supply and demand. In September and October, it belongs to the off-season of coal. Despite the weakening of civilian power, the economy continues to maintain its steady state, and coal demand will not drop sharply. It is expected that the number of North Coal South Transportation will decrease slightly year-on-year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to maintain stability and civil power will increase, driving the market to improve. Coal prices will continue to rise. By the end of the year, the transaction price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal ports is expected to exceed 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year," said Wang Yun, an analyst at Qinhuangdao Coal.